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Afronomics Today: Africa’s dated record of what money did, why it happened, and what happened next

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What changed this week (3)

How the moves are chosen: the largest auction rate change in any market in the last 7 days (against the previous sale of the same tenor), the largest overnight move among traded African currencies, and the largest move in Kenya. Shilling effects are worked out by code from the published rates; nothing here is estimated by a model. Information, not advice.

Our record: 7 of 9 published ranges held the result · 48 calls open, first due 6 Nov 2026 →

MarketsVerdict

Kenya's diaspora money: North America sent US$245m less in nine months, and the US tax is only 1%

Our verdict · Opinion

In our view, the US remittance tax is too small and too narrow to explain an 11.19% fall in money from North America on its own; the bigger, steadier cost for most senders is still the fee, and the shilling can absorb this fall, but a family that depends on one relative in America cannot.

US$1.946bn

From North America, Jan to Sep 202620 Oct 2026 · CBK, Diaspora Remittances, monthly inflows by source, data to September 2026

North America sent US$245m less; Europe and the rest of the world sent US$240m more (Change in inflows, January to September 2026 against 2025, US$ millions)
-245.2North America115.3Europe125.2Rest of world
North America sent US$245m less; Europe and the rest of the world sent US$240m more. North America: -245.2; Europe: 115.3; Rest of world: 125.2
ItemChange in inflows, January to September 2026 against 2025, US$ millions
North America-245.2
Europe115.3
Rest of world125.2

Source: CBK, Diaspora Remittances, monthly inflows by source, data to September 2026, 20 Oct 2026

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