Quickmart wants KES 15 billion from you by 30 October. Not one shilling of it goes to Quickmart.
It goes to the people selling Quickmart, through a holding company registered in Mauritius: a private equity fund, the founding families and the chief executive. That is allowed. It is also the first thing you should know before you dial the USSD code.
The Afronomics verdict: a real, profitable business, sold at a full price, on the sellers' terms.
The shop is good. The deal is built for the people leaving it. Here is the receipt.
What is on sale
FactsSokoni Retail Kenya, the company that owns all of Quickmart, is selling 2 billion existing shares at KES 7.50 each. That is half the company, KES 15 billion, and it values the whole chain at KES 30 billion. No new shares are created, so the company raises nothing.
The offer opened on 5 October and closes on 30 October. Results come out on 6 November and the shares start trading on 12 November. The minimum is 500 shares, KES 3,750. If buyers don't take at least 75% of the shares, the offer lapses and everyone gets their money back without interest. Nobody has underwritten it.
Who gets the money
Each owner of Sokoni is selling half of what they hold. If the offer sells out, before the KES 575.6 million in fees that the seller pays:
| Seller | Share of Sokoni | Gross take |
|---|---|---|
| Adenia, the private equity fund (via Sokoni Retail Holdings) | 50.79% | about KES 7.62 billion |
| The Kinuthia family, Quickmart's founders | 31.83% | about KES 4.77 billion |
| Tumaini's founders | 12.02% | about KES 1.80 billion |
| Peter Kang'iri, the chief executive | 5.36% | about KES 804 million |
AnalysisThe fees come to 3.8% of the sale. Adenia's fund was launched in 2016 and bought into Quickmart and Tumaini in 2018–2019; it never published what it paid. Private equity funds have a fixed life, and they sell when it runs out. This is what that looks like.
What the sellers keep, and for how long
FactsAfter the sale, Sokoni still owns 50%. It has promised not to sell 60% of that for 24 months. The other 40%, 800 million shares or a fifth of the company, can be sold from day one. The IFC, which has offered to buy up to US$15 million of shares as an anchor investor, has no lock-up at all.
OpinionA lock-up on 60% is a commitment the way "I'll call you" is a commitment. The market should price in 800 million shares that can walk in on 12 November.
The business
FactsCredit where it is due: this is a real shop that makes real money. Quickmart runs 72 stores in 16 counties, employs more than 8,000 people and handles about 5 million transactions a month. It has made a profit every year on the record.
| Year | Revenue (KES bn) | Growth | Profit (KES m) | Profit per KES 100 of sales |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 25.68 | 182.6 | 0.71 | |
| 2022 | 34.78 | 35.4% | 275.0 | 0.79 |
| 2023 | 41.22 | 18.5% | 449.6 | 1.09 |
| 2024 | 46.71 | 13.3% | 1,134.8 | 2.43 |
| 2025 | 50.43 | 8.0% | 1,508.6 | 2.99 |
| H1 2026 (unaudited) | 27.27 | 872.8 | 3.20 |
AnalysisTwo things move in opposite directions. Profit per shilling of sales has quadrupled since 2021, which is good management. Sales growth has slowed every year, from 35% to 8%, which is a shop that has filled most of its obvious sites.
The forecast it has to hit
FactsThe offer documents forecast KES 58.2 billion of revenue and KES 2.1 billion of profit for 2026. The chief executive told Bloomberg he expects about KES 60 billion, and called US$1 billion of revenue his "personal vision", adding that it is "not in the business plan".
AnalysisWe'll stick to the business plan. Reaching KES 58.2 billion means growing 15% after growing 8% last year. Reaching KES 2.1 billion of profit means earning about KES 1.23 billion in the second half, 41% more than the first. December helps any supermarket, but that is a steep second half.
Who funds the shop
Suppliers, mostly
FactsAt 30 June 2026 Quickmart owed banks just KES 6.8 million and held KES 700 million in cash. Its trading working capital (stock plus what it is owed, less what it owes suppliers) was negative KES 4.0 billion, and its net assets, what belongs to shareholders, were KES 1.9 billion. Trade payables, the money owed to suppliers, were KES 8.97 billion at the same date.
AnalysisNegative working capital is normal for a supermarket: you sell the milk before you pay the dairy. But the scale matters. On those figures, suppliers had about KES 4.65 in the business for every KES 1 the shareholders had. The offer documents put the time Quickmart takes to pay suppliers (trade payables against a year of cost of sales) at 89 days at the end of 2024, 101 days at the end of 2025 and 77 days at June 2026. The chief executive told Bloomberg suppliers are paid after 60 days.
OpinionSuppliers are Quickmart's largest financiers. They just don't get a dividend, a board seat or an IPO.
The rent
FactsEvery store is leased, on terms of 5 to 20 years and about 10.5 years on average when signed. In 2025 the company paid KES 1.61 billion in lease principal, and its net finance costs of KES 1.28 billion were mostly lease-related. Eighteen stores are leased from parties linked to founders or directors; the offer documents call the terms arm's-length. Founder-linked consultancy contracts were ended in July 2026, three months before the offer.
Dividends: more out than in
| Year | Profit (KES m) | Dividend paid (KES m) | Paid out |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 275.0 | 105.9 | 39% |
| 2023 | 449.6 | 782.4 | 174% |
| 2024 | 1,134.8 | 1,176.5 | 104% |
| 2025 | 1,508.6 | 1,647.1 | 109% |
| 2022–2025 | 3,368.0 | 3,711.8 | 110% |
FactsIn the first half of 2026 the company also advanced KES 1.1 billion to its shareholder against future dividends, against KES 872.8 million of profit for the half.
AnalysisOver four years the owners took out about KES 344 million more than the company earned. That is why a business worth KES 30 billion has KES 1.9 billion of equity. It is legal, and common before a sale. It also means the cushion that protects suppliers and new shareholders in a bad year is thin.
The price
FactsAt KES 7.50 a share, the whole company is valued at KES 30 billion. Measured against profit:
| Measure | Price-to-earnings |
|---|---|
| Last year's reported profit (2025) | 19.9 times |
| The company's 2026 forecast profit | 14.3 times |
| The company's 2026 forecast, "adjusted" | 12.9 times |
| Median NSE company outside banks and insurers, 2026 (adviser's figure) | 12.7 times |
| Median of 11 grocery retailers in Africa and the Gulf, 2026 (adviser's figure) | 17.7 times |
On the June 2026 balance sheet, you pay about 15.8 times the shareholders' equity. The adviser's own valuation note says it "has not independently verified" its inputs and is not an independent valuation.
AnalysisThe 12.9 the sellers quote is the cheapest of three ways to measure the same price: it uses a forecast, and an adjusted forecast at that. On what the company actually earned last year, you pay almost 20 times.
Against a Treasury bill
FactsThe company forecasts a dividend of about KES 0.50 a share for 2026, 6.7% of the offer price. Resident individuals pay 5% withholding tax on dividends, which leaves about 6.3%. The one-year Treasury bill sold on 12 October 2026 at 9.04%, which is 7.68% after its 15% tax.
AnalysisSo the forecast dividend pays less after tax than a government bill, and the bill doesn't depend on a December shopping season. What the share offers instead is growth and a price that can rise. It can also fall. That is the trade, and buyers should make it knowingly.
We've seen this aisle before
FactsKenya has watched three big supermarket chains fail, and suppliers paid heavily for at least two of them.
| Chain | What happened | What it owed |
|---|---|---|
| Nakumatt | Collapsed in 2018; creditors voted to liquidate | Sh18 billion to suppliers and Sh20 billion to secured lenders. Expected recovery from asset sales: Sh422.5 million |
| Tuskys | Administration in 2020, liquidation in 2023. By 2020 it was behind on paying suppliers (see below) | Liabilities of Sh20 billion against assets of about Sh6 billion |
| Uchumi | Listed on the NSE in 1992, into receivership and delisted in 2006, relisted in 2011, still repaying creditors under an arrangement | Still under a repayment plan, with an amended 10-year plan proposed from 2026 |
AnalysisTo be fair to Quickmart, it is not Nakumatt. Nakumatt owed banks billions; Quickmart owes banks almost nothing and makes a profit. From November its accounts will also be public every six months, which is more scrutiny than Tuskys ever faced as a private family business.
The shared risk is the one no supermarket escapes. When sales slow, the business leans harder on suppliers. At Nakumatt and Tuskys, unpaid suppliers were among the first public signs of trouble; in 2020 the Competition Authority ordered Tuskys to pay suppliers it owed for more than 90 days. So the number to watch after listing is not the share price. It is how many days Quickmart takes to pay its suppliers.
Our verdict
OpinionA real, profitable business, sold at a full price, on the sellers' terms.
The shop is well run. It has grown its profit faster than its sales, it barely borrows from banks, and it has shown up for Kenyan shoppers in sixteen counties. None of that is in question.
The deal is another matter. Every shilling goes to the sellers. The price leans on a forecast that needs a second half 41% better than the first. The owners have paid themselves more than the business earned, leaving KES 1.9 billion of equity under a KES 30 billion price tag. A fifth of the company can be sold from the day it lists. And a buyer gets a forecast dividend that pays less after tax than a Treasury bill.
None of this makes it a bad company. It makes it a sellers' market. If you buy, buy because you believe Quickmart can grow into the price, not because the queue at the USSD code is long.
What would change our mind
Strong demand from Kenyan pension funds and insurers, the people with the most time to study the numbers. A second half that delivers the forecast. Supplier payment days falling. The sellers extending their lock-up to all of their remaining shares.
Information, not advice.