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Our record

Forecasts written down first, graded against the result

Two records, each with its own hit rate: the range we publish for each Kenya Treasury bill auction before bids close, and the dated calls at the end of each Receipt. Both are committed to public files first and graded by code against the published result. Nothing is edited afterwards.

Live ledger

78%

7 of 9 graded results fell inside the range.

What the method aims for

80%

A range from the 10th to the 90th percentile of recent weekly moves should hold about four results in five.

Backtest, since 2011

70%

The same method run over 2,220 past auctions: 1,564 inside. Not ranges published at the time, and never added to the live figure.

When a result fell outside, it missed the range by 0.2 basis points on average.

Every forecast

When each was publishedDownload CSV
AuctionBillRangeWrittenResult
91-day8.74% – 8.87%from 8.75% on 2 Nov 20262026-10-29 20:31 UTCbids close 2026-11-05 11:00 UTCWaiting for CBK
182-day8.84% – 8.95%from 8.85% on 2 Nov 20262026-10-29 20:31 UTCbids close 2026-11-05 11:00 UTCWaiting for CBK
364-day9.02% – 9.11%from 9.03% on 2 Nov 20262026-10-29 20:31 UTCbids close 2026-11-05 11:00 UTCWaiting for CBK
91-day8.74% – 8.89%from 8.75% on 26 Oct 20262026-10-22 19:26 UTCbids closed 2026-10-29 11:00 UTC8.75% insideCBK auction results
182-day8.84% – 8.96%from 8.86% on 26 Oct 20262026-10-22 19:26 UTCbids closed 2026-10-29 11:00 UTC8.85% insideCBK auction results
364-day9.01% – 9.11%from 9.03% on 26 Oct 20262026-10-22 19:26 UTCbids closed 2026-10-29 11:00 UTC9.03% insideCBK auction results
91-day8.74% – 8.90%from 8.75% on 19 Oct 20262026-10-15 19:21 UTCbids closed 2026-10-22 11:00 UTC8.75% insideCBK auction results
182-day8.85% – 9.01%from 8.86% on 19 Oct 20262026-10-15 19:21 UTCbids closed 2026-10-22 11:00 UTC8.86% insideCBK auction results
364-day9.03% – 9.14%from 9.04% on 19 Oct 20262026-10-15 19:21 UTCbids closed 2026-10-22 11:00 UTC9.03% insideCBK auction results
91-day8.75% – 8.92%from 8.76% on 12 Oct 20262026-10-14 19:13 UTCbids closed 2026-10-15 11:00 UTC8.75% below by 0.2 bpCBK auction results
182-day8.86% – 9.03%from 8.87% on 12 Oct 20262026-10-14 19:13 UTCbids closed 2026-10-15 11:00 UTC8.86% below by 0.1 bpCBK auction results
364-day9.02% – 9.14%from 9.04% on 12 Oct 20262026-10-14 19:13 UTCbids closed 2026-10-15 11:00 UTC9.04% insideCBK auction results

By bill

BillLive: insideBacktest: inside
91-day2 of 3 (67%)547 of 765 (72%)
182-day2 of 3 (67%)523 of 758 (69%)
364-day3 of 3 (100%)494 of 697 (71%)

Editorial calls

When each was publishedDownload CSV

The dated calls at the end of each Receipt, written to a public file when the Receipt is published and graded against the source each names. The grade is the published figure compared with the call by code. This record is kept apart from the auction ranges above: a yes-or-no call and a range are different kinds of forecast.

No call graded yet. 48 open, the first due 6 Nov 2026.

  1. Total demand comes in below 150% of the shares on offer

    Total demand, % of the shares on offer, < 150 % · settled by Results announcement, 6 Nov 2026 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-15 07:10 UTC

    Open

  2. The offer clears its 75% minimum and the shares list on 12 November 2026

    Shares listed on the NSE on 12 November 2026, is yes · settled by Results announcement; NSE, 12 Nov 2026 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-15 07:10 UTC

    Open

  3. The shares close their first trading day within 10% of KES 7.50

    First-day NSE closing price, between 6.75 and 8.25 KES · settled by NSE closing price, 12 Nov 2026 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-15 07:10 UTC

    Open

  4. National government pending bills are still above KES 400 billion at 30 September 2026

    Total outstanding national government pending bills at 30 September 2026, National Treasury Quarterly Economic and Budgetary Review, first quarter 2026/27, > 400 KES bn · settled by National Treasury, Quarterly Economic and Budgetary Review, first quarter 2026/27 (due within 45 days of the quarter's end, PFM Act section 83), 14 Nov 2026 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-24 09:27 UTC

    Open

  5. Total revenue for July to September 2026 comes in below its target

    Total revenue including appropriations-in-aid, July to September 2026: outturn minus target, < 0 KES bn · settled by National Treasury, Quarterly Economic and Budgetary Review, first quarter 2026/27 (due within 45 days of the quarter's end, PFM Act section 83), 14 Nov 2026 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-24 09:27 UTC

    Open

  6. Kenyan applications for the receipts come in below the KES 39 billion target

    Kenyan GDR applications received, < 39 KES bn · settled by Renaissance Capital (Kenya) allotment announcement, 20 Nov 2026 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-15 08:13 UTC

    Open

  7. Money from North America in October 2026 is below October 2025's

    North America inflows, October 2026 against October 2025, % change, CBK Diaspora Remittances table (monthly inflows by source), < 0 % · settled by CBK, Diaspora Remittances page (monthly inflows by source); CBK Weekly Bulletin carrying October 2026 remittances, 20 Nov 2026 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-24 09:07 UTC

    Open

  8. The shares are listed on the Nigerian Exchange by 18 December 2026

    Shares listed on the NGX by 18 December 2026, is yes · settled by NGX listing notice, 18 Dec 2026 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-15 08:13 UTC

    Open

  9. The receipts start trading on the NSE by 31 December 2026

    Dangote GDRs trading on the NSE by 31 December 2026, is yes · settled by NSE listing notice, 31 Dec 2026 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-15 08:13 UTC

    Open

  10. Kenya's total remittances for 2026 come in below 2025's

    Cumulative remittance inflows for the 12 months to December 2026, % change on a year earlier, as the CBK Weekly Bulletin reports it, < 0 % · settled by CBK Weekly Bulletin carrying December 2026 remittances; CBK, Diaspora Remittances page, 22 Jan 2027 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-24 09:07 UTC

    Open

  11. Money from North America for the whole of 2026 is down by more than 8% on 2025

    North America inflows, January to December 2026 against January to December 2025, % change, CBK Diaspora Remittances table, < -8 % · settled by CBK, Diaspora Remittances page (monthly inflows by source), 29 Jan 2027 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-24 09:07 UTC

    Open

  12. The first county budget report after the at-source payroll started shows less than KES 5 billion of statutory deductions not remitted by counties in July to September 2026

    Statutory deductions not remitted by county governments in the first quarter of FY 2026/27, Controller of Budget, County Governments Budget Implementation Review Report, first quarter FY 2026/27, < 5 KES bn · settled by Controller of Budget, County Governments Budget Implementation Review Report, first quarter of FY 2026/27, 31 Jan 2027 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-24 09:27 UTC

    Open

  13. State corporations still owe more than 70% of national government pending bills at 31 December 2026

    State corporations' share of total national government pending bills at 31 December 2026, > 70 % · settled by National Treasury, Quarterly Economic and Budgetary Review, first half 2026/27 (due within 45 days of the quarter's end, PFM Act section 83), 14 Feb 2027 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-24 09:27 UTC

    Open

  14. Growth in bank lending to the private sector is at least 8% in December 2026

    Growth in commercial banks' lending to the private sector, December 2026, year on year, as reported by the CBK, >= 8 % · settled by CBK, Monetary Policy Committee press release or Monthly Economic Indicators covering December 2026, 28 Feb 2027 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-16 09:43 UTC

    Open

  15. Banks' average lending rate is still above 13% in December 2026

    Commercial banks' weighted average lending rate, December 2026, > 13 % · settled by CBK, commercial banks' weighted average rates (Afronomics rates file), 28 Feb 2027 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-16 09:43 UTC

    Open

  16. The Budget Statement for 2027/28 sets aside less for pending bills than the KES 68 billion proposed for 2026/27

    Allocation for settling pending bills in 2027/28, as announced in the Budget Statement, < 68 KES bn · settled by National Treasury, Budget Statement for 2027/28 (scheduled for 18 March 2027), 18 Mar 2027 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-24 09:27 UTC

    Open

  17. Kenya's 2031 Eurobond yields less than 9% on 31 March 2027

    Yield on Kenya's 2031 Eurobond for 31 March 2027, CBK Weekly Bulletin Table 6, < 9 % · settled by CBK Weekly Bulletin, Table 6 (Afronomics Eurobond file), 31 Mar 2027 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-15 18:30 UTC

    Open

  18. Kenya's 2031 Eurobond still yields more than Nigeria's January 2031 Eurobond on 31 March 2027

    Kenya 2031 yield minus Nigeria 8.747% January 2031 yield on 31 March 2027, in points, > 0 points · settled by CBK Weekly Bulletin Table 6 and Nigeria DMO daily Eurobond prices (Afronomics Eurobond file), 31 Mar 2027 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-15 18:30 UTC

    Open

  19. Kenya pays the 16 February 2027 coupon on the 2031 notes, US$73.125 million, on the due date

    16 February 2027 coupon on the 9.750% notes due 2031 paid on the due date, is yes · settled by National Treasury, monthly public debt bulletin for February 2027, 31 Mar 2027 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-15 18:30 UTC

    Open

  20. Safaricom's published total daily Fuliza charge on a KES 501 to 1,000 balance is still KES 6 on 31 March 2027

    Total Charges for the 501-1000 band in the Fuliza tariff table on Safaricom's Fuliza page, 31 March 2027, is 6 · settled by Safaricom, Fuliza page (charges and tariff table), 31 Mar 2027 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-17 17:50 UTC

    Open

  21. The Affordable Housing Board's 2025/26 annual report counts fewer than 20,000 completed housing units

    Housing units reported complete in the Affordable Housing Board's annual report and financial statements for the year ended 30 June 2026, < 20000 units · settled by Affordable Housing Board, annual report and financial statements 2025/26 (tabled in Parliament with the Auditor-General's report), 31 Mar 2027 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-16 04:26 UTC

    Open

  22. Housing Levy collected in 2025/26 is below KES 90 billion

    Affordable Housing Levy revenue for the year ended 30 June 2026, Affordable Housing Fund audited financial statements, < 90 KES bn · settled by Affordable Housing Fund, annual report and financial statements 2025/26 (Auditor-General), 31 Mar 2027 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-16 04:26 UTC

    Open

  23. The CBK rate is between KES 125 and KES 135 to the US dollar on 31 March 2027

    CBK indicative mean rate, KES per US dollar, for 31 March 2027 (or the last working day before it), CBK Weekly Bulletin Table 1, between 125 and 135 KES per US$ · settled by CBK Weekly Bulletin, Table 1, Kenya Shilling Exchange Rates, 31 Mar 2027 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-16 04:26 UTC

    Open

  24. The shilling is weaker on 31 March 2027 than its 8 October 2026 rate of KES 129.94

    CBK indicative mean rate, KES per US dollar, for 31 March 2027 (or the last working day before it), > 129.94 KES per US$ · settled by CBK Weekly Bulletin, Table 1, Kenya Shilling Exchange Rates, 31 Mar 2027 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-16 04:26 UTC

    Open

  25. CBK foreign exchange reserves still cover at least five months of imports in the last Weekly Bulletin of March 2027

    CBK foreign exchange reserves, months of import cover, latest date in the last Weekly Bulletin published in March 2027 (Table 2), >= 5 months of import cover · settled by CBK Weekly Bulletin, Table 2, Foreign Exchange Reserves, 31 Mar 2027 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-16 04:26 UTC

    Open

  26. The 364-day Treasury bill clears between 8% and 10% at the last auction with a value date in March 2027

    364-day bill weighted average rate of accepted bids, last auction with a value date in March 2027, between 8 and 10 % · settled by CBK Treasury bill auction results (Afronomics auction file), 31 Mar 2027 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-16 04:26 UTC

    Open

  27. Kenyan money market funds hold more than the KES 459.9 billion they held at 30 June 2026 when the CMA reports 31 December 2026

    Total of the Money Market Funds table, CMA Collective Investment Schemes report for Q4 2026, > 459.9 KES bn · settled by CMA Collective Investment Schemes quarterly report, Q4 2026 (Afronomics money market fund size file), 31 Mar 2027 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-16 04:26 UTC

    Open

  28. Unremitted pension contributions are still above KES 60 billion at 31 December 2026

    Total unremitted pension contributions owed to retirement benefits schemes at 31 December 2026, as published by the Retirement Benefits Authority, > 60 KES bn · settled by Retirement Benefits Authority, survey of unremitted contributions at 31 December 2026 (the December 2025 survey was reported in February 2026), 31 Mar 2027 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-24 09:27 UTC

    Open

  29. Profit for 2026 comes in below US$3.64 billion, twice the first half

    Profit after tax for 2026, < 3.64 US$ bn · settled by Audited 2026 financial statements, 30 Apr 2027 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-15 08:13 UTC

    Open

  30. Kenya Airways still reports negative total equity at 31 December 2026

    Group total equity at 31 December 2026, Kenya Airways audited results for 2026, < 0 KES bn · settled by Kenya Airways PLC, summary audited group results for the year ended 31 December 2026, 30 Apr 2027 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-17 17:50 UTC

    Open

  31. Kenya Airways' loss after tax for 2026 is bigger than 2025's KES 17.2 billion

    Group loss after tax for the year ended 31 December 2026, as a positive number, > 17.163 KES bn · settled by Kenya Airways PLC, summary audited group results for the year ended 31 December 2026, 30 Apr 2027 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-17 17:50 UTC

    Open

  32. Fuliza disbursements grow again in Safaricom's year to March 2027, above the KES 1,465.8 billion of FY26

    Fuliza value of disbursements (KShs Bn), FY27, Safaricom FY27 results booklet, > 1465.8 KES bn · settled by Safaricom PLC, FY27 Results Booklet, Financial Services: Lending table, 31 May 2027 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-17 17:50 UTC

    Open

  33. The average Fuliza draw keeps shrinking: below KES 217.9 in the year to March 2027

    Fuliza Average Ticket Size (KShs), FY27, Safaricom FY27 results booklet, < 217.9 KES · settled by Safaricom PLC, FY27 Results Booklet, Financial Services: Lending table, 31 May 2027 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-17 17:50 UTC

    Open

  34. Profit for 2026 comes in below the KES 2.1 billion forecast

    Profit for 2026, < 2.1 KES bn · settled by Audited 2026 results, 30 Jun 2027 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-15 07:10 UTC

    Open

  35. Trade payable days at 31 December 2026 are above 77

    Trade payable days at 31 December 2026, > 77 days · settled by Audited 2026 results, 30 Jun 2027 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-15 07:10 UTC

    Open

  36. Kenya's next new dollar Eurobond carries a coupon below the 9.75% of the 2031 notes

    Coupon of the first new Kenya US-dollar Eurobond priced between 15 October 2026 and 30 June 2027 (void if none is priced), < 9.75 % · settled by National Treasury pricing press release, 30 Jun 2027 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-15 18:30 UTC

    Open

  37. The levy is still 1.5% of gross salary for the employee, matched by the employer, on 30 June 2027

    Rate in section 4(2) of the Affordable Housing Act in force on 30 June 2027, is 1.5% · settled by Affordable Housing Act on Kenya Law, 30 Jun 2027 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-16 04:26 UTC

    Open

  38. The conversion of about KES 122 billion of government loans is not completed by 30 June 2027

    Kenya Airways announcement, through the NSE, that the conversion of existing government loans has been completed, published by 30 June 2027, is no · settled by Kenya Airways PLC announcements on the NSE and USE, 30 Jun 2027 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-17 17:50 UTC

    Open

  39. No infrastructure bond, new or reopened, clears at a weighted average rate above 15% at any auction before 30 June 2027

    Highest weighted average rate accepted at any IFB auction, 16 October 2026 to 30 June 2027, <= 15 % · settled by CBK Treasury bond auction results (Afronomics bond auction file), 30 Jun 2027 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-15 18:30 UTC

    Open

  40. The 364-day Treasury bill clears below 10% at the last auction of June 2027

    364-day bill weighted average rate, last auction with a value date in June 2027, < 10 % · settled by CBK Treasury bill auction results (Afronomics auction file), 30 Jun 2027 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-15 18:30 UTC

    Open

  41. The Sacco Societies (Amendment) Bill, 2025 is still not law on 30 June 2027

    Bill No. 32 of 2025 assented to and published as an Act on or before 30 June 2027, is no · settled by Kenya Gazette and Kenya Law, Acts of 2026 and 2027, 30 Jun 2027 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-16 04:26 UTC

    Open

  42. Deposits in regulated SACCOs reach at least KES 920 billion at 31 December 2026

    Total deposits of all regulated SACCOs (DT and NWDT) at 31 December 2026, >= 920 KES bn · settled by SASRA Quarterly Statistical and Soundness Report, December 2026 (Afronomics SACCO file), 30 Jun 2027 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-16 04:26 UTC

    Open

  43. The Central Bank Rate is at or below 8.75% after the last MPC meeting held before 30 June 2027

    Central Bank Rate announced at the last MPC meeting held before 30 June 2027, <= 8.75 % · settled by CBK MPC press release, 30 Jun 2027 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-16 04:26 UTC

    Open

  44. Interest on government securities is still at least a quarter of Kenyan banks' total income in 2026

    Interest on government securities as a share of total income, banking sector, year to December 2026 (CBK Bank Supervision Annual Report 2026, income table), >= 25 % · settled by CBK, Bank Supervision Annual Report 2026, 31 Oct 2027 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-16 09:43 UTC

    Open

  45. Counties' salary arrears and unremitted statutory deductions are still at least KES 90 billion on 30 June 2027

    Outstanding salary arrears and unremitted statutory deductions of county executives and assemblies at 30 June 2027, Controller of Budget annual county report for FY 2026/27, >= 90 KES bn · settled by Controller of Budget, Annual County Governments Budget Implementation Review Report, FY 2026/27, 31 Oct 2027 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-24 09:27 UTC

    Open

  46. Unremitted SACCO deductions are still at least KES 3 billion at 31 December 2026

    Total deductions (savings and loan repayments) made by employers but not remitted to regulated SACCOs at 31 December 2026, SASRA Sacco Supervision Annual Report 2026, >= 3 KES bn · settled by SASRA, Sacco Supervision Annual Report 2026 (the 2025 report was launched on 28 September 2026), 31 Oct 2027 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-24 09:27 UTC

    Open

  47. Any new infrastructure bond issued before 31 December 2027 carries a coupon below 14%

    Highest coupon on a new IFB issued between 16 October 2026 and 31 December 2027, < 14 % · settled by CBK Treasury bond auction results (Afronomics bond auction file), 31 Dec 2027 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-15 18:30 UTC

    Open

  48. No date is set for the SACCO Deposit Guarantee Fund to start paying claims before 31 December 2027

    A date for the start of payments of claims from the SACCO Deposit Guarantee Fund, appointed and published on or before 31 December 2027, is no · settled by Kenya Gazette; SASRA notices and annual reports, 31 Dec 2027 · from this Receipt, written 2026-10-16 04:26 UTC

    Open

How it works

  • Method v1: Latest weighted average accepted rate plus the 10th to 90th percentile of the last 26 weekly moves (lib/data/auction-intel.ts). Aims to hold about 80% of results.
  • Ranges are written to a public file before bids close (Thursday, 14:00 Nairobi); the commit history shows when. A range written after bids close is refused by the code that writes it.
  • The result is CBK’s published weighted average accepted rate for that bill. A range with no result after 21 days is marked as such, never dropped.
  • If the method changes, it gets a new version; earlier forecasts keep theirs and are reported apart.
  • These forecasts were first committed on the branch that built the ledger, before it was merged; their time stamp is this commit, not the merge. Commit of 2026-10-14 19:13 UTC (3 forecasts).

This week’s ranges and the bid checker · Information, not advice: a range is not a recommendation to bid at any rate.