From January to September 2026, Kenyans abroad sent home US$3.769bn through banks and licensed providers, says the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK). In the same months of 2025 they sent US$3.774bn.
The total barely moved. The mix did. Money from North America fell by US$245.2m, or 11.19%. That is about KES 31.83bn that did not reach families here, Business Daily worked out.
Our verdict (Opinion): In our view, the US remittance tax is too small and too narrow to explain an 11.19% fall in money from North America on its own; the bigger, steadier cost for most senders is still the fee, and the shilling can absorb this fall, but a family that depends on one relative in America cannot.
What happened
FactsThe CBK's table of inflows by source shows three regions moving apart over the nine months:
| Source | Jan to Sep 2025 | Jan to Sep 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| North America | US$2.191bn | US$1.946bn | −11.19% |
| Europe | US$683.1m | US$798.4m | +16.87% |
| Rest of world | US$899.8m | US$1.025bn | +13.86% |
| Total | US$3.774bn | US$3.769bn | −0.14% |
CBK, diaspora remittances by source, data to September 2026. Percentage changes as reported by Business Daily, 18 October 2026.
FactsEurope and the rest of the world added US$240.5m between them. That almost covered North America's gap. It left the total US$5.2m short of 2025.
FactsThe CBK reports North America as one region; it does not split out the United States. Business Daily notes that most North American inflows come from there.
FactsThe latest month was better. Inflows were US$438.5m in September 2026, against US$419.6m in September 2025, the CBK's Weekly Bulletin of 16 October says. North America still sent less: US$215.5m, against US$245.9m.
FactsAfter the October Monetary Policy Committee meeting, Governor Kamau Thugge said remittances "slowed down, mainly reflecting reduced inflows from the USA and Saudi Arabia", while noting "some recovery" in the last two months. The CBK projects growth of 0.7% for 2026, Business Daily reported.
Why: what the sources support, and what they do not
FactsThe US tax. Public Law 119-21, signed on 4 July 2025, added section 4475 to the US tax code. It puts a tax of 1% on the amount of a remittance transfer made after 31 December 2025. The sender pays it; the provider collects it and pays it over every quarter. It applies only when the sender pays with "cash, a money order, a cashier's check, or any other similar physical instrument". Transfers paid from an account at a bank or similar institution, or by a US-issued debit or credit card, are exempt. Draft rules on the detail were published on 13 April 2026.
FactsBusiness Daily links the fall in North American money to the tax and to higher living costs in the US. It also says the data do not show how much of the fall is due to the tax.
AnalysisThe arithmetic does not let the tax carry the whole fall. It is 1%. North America sent 11.19% less. Canada is in that region and has no such tax. Transfers paid from a bank account or a US card do not pay it at all. The tax could still push some senders to unregistered channels, which the CBK does not count. Nobody has measured how many.
AnalysisUS immigration enforcement. We found no CBK figure or study that measures its effect on money sent to Kenya. The CBK has not attributed the fall to it. We leave it as an unknown.
AnalysisThe exchange rate. It is not the reason dollars fell. The shilling has held near KES 130 to the dollar for more than two years (our Receipt on the shilling). A steady rate also means no help: a dollar sent home buys about the same shillings as last year.
What the numbers show
AnalysisNorth America sent 51.6% of the nine-month total in 2026, by our arithmetic. In 2025 it sent 58.1%. Kenya's biggest source of family money is shrinking as a share, and the gap was filled by many smaller sources.
AnalysisFor the households it touches, the US$245.2m is about KES 3.5bn a month that did not arrive. Spread across a country, that is small. Concentrated in families whose money comes from one relative in the US or Canada, it is rent and school fees.
FactsWhat senders pay. The World Bank's survey for January to March 2025, in our remittance file, put the average cost of sending the equivalent of US$200 to Kenya at 5.2% from the US, across 31 services. It was 6.35% the quarter before. From the UK it was 4.44%; from Canada, 7.28%. The cost is the fee plus the exchange-rate margin. The survey predates the US tax.
| On a US$200 transfer from the US | US$ | KES at about 130 |
|---|---|---|
| Average fee and margin, 5.2% | US$10.40 | about KES 1,350 |
| The 1% tax, only if paid in cash or similar paper | US$2.00 | about KES 260 |
Afronomics remittance file (World Bank Remittance Prices Worldwide, January to March 2025); 26 U.S.C. 4475, at about KES 130 to the dollar.
AnalysisThe fee is five times the tax on an average US$200 transfer, and it applies to every transfer, card or cash. The UN's target for 2030 is 3%. From all three of these sending countries, the average was above it.
AnalysisFor the shilling, the fall is small: over nine months the total was down US$5.2m, or 0.14%. The risk is a steady slide, not this year's dip.
Our verdict
OpinionIn our view, the US remittance tax is too small and too narrow to explain an 11.19% fall in money from North America on its own; the bigger, steadier cost for most senders is still the fee, and the shilling can absorb this fall, but a family that depends on one relative in America cannot.
The tax is the easy headline. A 1% charge on cash transfers did not, on its own, take a ninth off a region's money. Something else is happening to Kenyans in North America: what they earn, what they keep, or how they send. The data we have cannot say which.
The fee is the cost nobody campaigns about. At 5.2% on US$200, it took more than five times the tax, every time, before the tax existed.
The country is fine for now. Europe and the rest of the world sent more. But that is a national average. A household is not an average.
Our calls
- North America's inflows for October 2026 are below October 2025's. Checked against the CBK's table on 20 November 2026.
- Kenya's total remittances for 2026 are below 2025's. Checked on 22 January 2027.
- North America's inflows for the whole of 2026 are down by more than 8%. Checked on 29 January 2027.
What would change our mind
A study or official figure showing that the tax, through a move to cash-free or informal channels, explains most of the fall. Or a recovery in North American money for the rest of 2026 strong enough to end the year close to 2025.
Disclosure: Afronomics and its founder hold no stake in any remittance provider. Afronomics may earn a referral fee from some providers listed on its send-money pages. We name no provider and rank none: the fee figures are averages across all the services the World Bank surveyed.
Information, not advice.