The Dangote refinery wants about US$1.6 billion, and for the first time Kenyans can buy a piece of it from Nairobi. Unlike Quickmart's offer, the money goes to the company: it is building the refinery to twice its size.
The catch is not the refinery. It is the price and the route.
The Afronomics verdict: a real refinery that finally makes money, priced on its best half-year and sold to Kenyans through a costly wrapper.
What is on sale
FactsDangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals FZE is selling up to 4.1 billion new shares at ₦525 each, about US$0.385 at the prospectus rate of ₦1,364 to the dollar. If it sells out, it raises ₦2.15 trillion, about US$1.58 billion. It may take up to 30% more if demand is strong, subject to Nigeria's SEC. The offer is not underwritten.
FactsNo existing owner is selling. After costs of ₦41.5 billion (1.9%), all ₦2.11 trillion goes to the expansion from 700,000 to about 1.4 million barrels a day, planned for 2029. An investment fund in Mauritius has committed up to US$400 million, about a quarter of the offer.
FactsThe offer is 3.3% of the company. Aliko Dangote, through Dangote Oil Refining, Dangote Industries and Greenview, holds 87.3% today and about 84% after. NNPC holds 6.8%.
How Kenyans buy in
FactsKenyans do not buy the shares directly. Renaissance Capital (Kenya) buys the shares in Nigeria and issues one Kenyan receipt, a GDR, for each share, at KES 53.50. The target is KES 39 billion, about 729 million receipts or 17.8% of the offer. The refinery did not set up this programme; it has given its support in principle.
FactsThe minimum was 2,000 receipts, KES 107,000. Renaissance Capital has since cut it to 10 receipts, KES 535, according to Business Today. The offer was due to close on 13 October; Capital FM reports that Nigeria's SEC extended it to 27 October and that the Kenyan offer follows. We have not yet seen the amended memorandum behind these two changes; we will confirm them against it. The receipts are expected to trade on the NSE in December, a few days after the shares list in Lagos.
AnalysisThe wrapper costs. The memorandum puts the Kenyan offer's costs at KES 698 million, about 1.8% of the target, paid by the holders, plus a custody fee of 0.16% a year. For now, a receipt cannot be swapped for the share underneath. Its value moves with the naira against the shilling as well as with the refinery. And dividends are taxed twice: Nigeria takes 10%, Kenya takes its own 5%, and the two countries have no tax treaty.
What the numbers show
FactsThe refinery reached its 650,000-barrel nameplate in February 2026 and was tested at 700,000 in June. It now supplies about 87.6% of Nigeria's petrol. About 60% of its crude comes from NNPC.
FactsIt lost money in 2024 (US$1.51 billion) and 2025 (US$476 million). Then in the first half of 2026 it made a profit of US$1.82 billion on revenue of US$13.9 billion, more revenue in six months than in all of 2025. Deloitte gave an unqualified opinion on every period.
FactsAt ₦525 the whole company is valued at ₦65.2 trillion, about US$47.8 billion.
| Measured against | Times profit |
|---|---|
| The last 12 months (second half of 2025 and first half of 2026), US$1.63 billion | about 29 times |
| The first half of 2026 doubled, US$3.64 billion | about 13 times |
AnalysisThe price only looks reasonable if every half-year is as good as the first half of 2026. That half came after the refinery reached full output, so it may be the new normal. It is also one half-year, and the two before it lost money.
FactsBorrowings were US$5.67 billion at 30 June 2026, all secured, at SOFR plus 5% to 7%; a US$750 million bond followed in July. The prospectus sets no dividend payout and makes no profit forecast.
What could change the sums
FactsThe refinery sits in a free zone. From 1 January 2028, profits from sales into Nigeria "may become subject to applicable Nigerian taxes", the prospectus says. In the first half of 2026 it already paid US$286 million in tax.
AnalysisThree things carry this business: crude from NNPC, a petrol price the government watches closely, and a naira that sets what Nigerians can pay. Each is in the prospectus's own risk list. None is under the refinery's control.
Our verdict
OpinionA real refinery that finally makes money, priced on its best half-year and sold to Kenyans through a costly wrapper.
The plant is real and it works. The money raised builds more of it, which is the way an IPO should be. That puts it ahead of a sale where the owners simply cash out.
The price asks buyers to treat six good months as normal, in a business that lost US$2 billion in the two years before them and whose tax holiday may end in 2028. A Kenyan who buys through the receipts pays that price plus about 1.8% in costs, carries the naira on top of the refinery, and pays tax on dividends in two countries.
For comparison, the one-year Treasury bill sold on 12 October 2026 at 9.04%, before tax.
What would change our mind
A second half of 2026 as strong as the first. A dividend policy with a number in it. A clear answer on the refinery's tax from 2028. And a sponsored receipt programme, with the refinery behind it, that lets Kenyans swap a receipt for the share.
Information, not advice.